Jan 2022
We expect the US 10-year Treasury yield to test 2% in 1Q 2022, two to three rate hikes in 2Q-3Q 2022 barring major market dislocation, and inflation begins to print 4-5% YoY after October 2022 as high base year effect kicks in and the economy cools off. A wild card to watch is whether US consumer spending unexpectedly remains strong. During 2021, US Dollar strengthened against Euro, Yen and almost all other currencies with only one outlier being Chinese RMB. The Chinese RMB is the only currency (and bond market) that has positive real yield and is uncorrelated with the US and G7 markets. We have been advocating an allocation to RMB and Chinese government bonds for the past few years and continue to recommend the same for 2022. On the credit space, The Asian IG bond market will be steady and mainly tracking the overall US treasury market. The excitement and opportunities lie in the Asian high yield space, and China property sector in particular. Based on past 30 years experiences gathered during the Asian Financial Crisis (1997) and the Global Financial Crisis (2008), we found reasons for optimism towards the performance of the Chinese property sector high yield in the next 12 – 18 months.